New York Rangers vs Detroit Red Wings

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-16 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-16 05:03 PM EST

New York Rangers vs Detroit Red Wings on 2025-11-16

💰 Best Bet #1 [Detroit Red Wings / Spread / +1.5 at -140 / 55% / Red Wings have covered +1.5 in 52% of simulations, supported by Rangers’ inconsistent puck line performance despite home edge and recent wins against weaker foes]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ recent games show high-scoring trends (Rangers averaging 5 goals scored last three, Red Wings 3.7), with average simulated total at 5.8 goals amid defensive injuries]
💰 Best Bet #3 [New York Rangers / Moneyline / -150 / 52% / Rangers hold 52% win probability in simulations, bolstered by home-ice advantage and superior xGF metrics in current season matchups]

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

Public Bets

[New York Rangers 65% / Detroit Red Wings 35%]

💸 Public Bets

[New York Rangers 65% / Detroit Red Wings 35%]

💰 Money Distribution

[New York Rangers 55% / Detroit Red Wings 45%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

[Line opened at Rangers -1.5 (-130) and moved to -120, with total steady at 5.5 despite public leaning on Rangers]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+2.5% on Red Wings +1.5, driven by simulation cover rate and reverse line movement indicating sharp action on underdog spread amid Rangers’ injury concerns]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Rangers | 52% |
| Win % for Detroit Red Wings | 25% |
| Draw % | 23% |
| Puck Line Cover % for New York Rangers (-1.5) | 48% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Detroit Red Wings (+1.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 5.5: 52% / Under 5.5: 48% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Artemi Panarin / Over 0.5 Points / -150 / 70% / Panarin’s high usage rate (25% on Rangers) and point production in 8 of last 10 games against similar defensive setups favor the over, with Red Wings allowing 1.2 points per game to top wingers
Player Prop #2: Dylan Larkin / Under 0.5 Goals / +120 / 65% / Larkin’s goal scoring dips to 0.3 per game against strong goaltending like Shesterkin (92% save rate), plus Rangers’ top penalty kill limiting high-danger chances
Player Prop #3: Igor Shesterkin / Over 25.5 Saves / -110 / 60% / Red Wings average 28 shots per game in current season, and Shesterkin’s starts see 26+ saves in 70% of home games, supported by Detroit’s shot volume despite recent losses

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Rangers on the moneyline, but money distribution shows sharper action balancing toward the Red Wings spread, creating value in fading the public where simulations confirm a close contest. Defensive metrics suggest a moderate-scoring affair, though offensive trends and injuries to depth players tilt toward the over hitting in 52% of runs. Overall, following the math on the puck line underdog aligns with EV edges from line movement and current season xGA data.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on New York Rangers / Take Detroit Red Wings +1.5] — simulations and sharp indicators point to the underdog covering with positive EV in a projected tight matchup.

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