New York Rangers vs Ottawa Senators

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-14 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-14 10:21 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 New York Rangers / Puck Line / +1.5 at -180 / 70% Confidence
Rangers’ strong home defense and recent form against Eastern Conference teams support covering the +1.5 puck line, with historical data showing a 72% cover rate in similar matchups this season.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 55% Confidence
Both teams exhibit low xGA per 60 minutes in divisional games, trending toward defensive battles; simulation data leans over but historical NHL prediction performance favors flipping to under for value.

💰 Best Bet #3 New York Rangers / Moneyline / +105 / 52% Confidence
Rangers hold a slight edge at home with better Corsi% and goalie metrics, offering positive EV against a Senators team struggling on the road this season.

New York Rangers vs Ottawa Senators on 2026-01-14

Game Times
ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
New York Rangers 60% / Ottawa Senators 40%

💰 Money Distribution
New York Rangers 55% / Ottawa Senators 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line stable at Rangers +1.5 and total 6.5, with minimal movement despite moderate public action on the home team.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Rangers puck line, driven by home-ice advantage and Senators’ poor road xGF metrics this season.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|———————————|————————|
| Win % for New York Rangers | 48% |
| Win % for Ottawa Senators | 47% |
| Tie % | 5% |
| Puck Line Cover % for New York Rangers (+1.5) | 75% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Ottawa Senators (-1.5) | 25% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3.0, 3.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Artemi Panarin / Over Points / 0.5 at -120 / 65% Confidence
Panarin’s high usage rate (25%) and strong on-ice xGF against Senators’ defense (allowing 3.1 goals per game) make over 0.5 points likely, hitting in 68% of home games this season.

Player Prop #2: Mika Zibanejad / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -110 / 60% Confidence
Zibanejad averages 3.2 SOG per game at home, with Senators’ PK vulnerable to shooting volume; over has cashed in 62% of recent outings.

Player Prop #3: Brady Tkachuk / Under Points / 0.5 at +100 / 58% Confidence
Tkachuk faces Rangers’ elite penalty kill (82% success rate), limiting scoring chances; under has hit in 65% of road games against top defenses.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward the Rangers on the moneyline, aligning with sharp money distribution and stable line movement, making following the public optimal here without a clear fade opportunity. Both teams’ defensive metrics suggest a lower-scoring affair, with Rangers allowing just 2.7 xGA per 60 at home. Overall, the matchup favors controlled play, reducing upset risk.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New York Rangers — mathematical probabilities and home advantage provide the strongest edge for success.

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