MLB
New York Yankees vs 
Detroit Tigers
League: MLB | Game Time: 1:35 PM ET • 12:35 PM CT • 11:35 AM MT • 10:35 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-06-28 05:30 PM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 New York Yankees -1.5 at +158 / 58% / Yankees cover despite recent skid due to heavy Tigers injury list and home favorite status in provided odds
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 8 at -110 / 54% / Recent form and multiple high-profile injuries on both sides point to suppressed run totals below the provided 8-run line
💰 Best Bet #3 New York Yankees ML at -142 / 61% / Strongest mathematical edge from market data and injury disparity favoring the Yankees in the exact odds provided
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Yankees | 58% |
| Win % for Detroit Tigers | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46% / Under: 54% |
| Average Total Runs | 7.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, 5] |
💸 Public Bets
Yankees 64% / Tigers 36%
💰 Money Distribution
Yankees 68% / Tigers 32%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Yankees -1.5 holding steady at +158 with heavy money on the favorite
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.8% on Yankees ML and spread; positive EV on Under from low recent scoring
Top 3 Player Props – New York Yankees
– Player Prop #1: Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI at -115 / 61% / Heavy Yankees injury list forces expanded role but recent form and Tigers pitching injuries limit production
– Player Prop #2: Aaron Judge Under 1.5 total bases at +105 / 57% / Listed as out on latest injury report caps volume despite favorable matchup
– Player Prop #3: Giancarlo Stanton Over 0.5 RBI at +110 / 53% / Limited sample but power upside remains when active against depleted Tigers staff
Top 3 Player Props – Detroit Tigers
– Player Prop #1: Javier Báez Under 0.5 hits at -130 / 59% / Multiple 60-day IL listings reduce lineup protection and contact rates
– Player Prop #2: Parker Meadows Over 0.5 runs at +125 / 52% / Tigers recent low-output games create contrarian spot for leadoff speed when active
– Player Prop #3: Jack Flaherty Under 5.5 strikeouts at -120 / 55% / Latest injury report limits innings and strikeout upside on short rest
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public money and sharp action align on the Yankees side with no meaningful reverse line movement. Heavy injury clusters on both rosters suppress offense and support the Under, while the Yankees retain the clearest edge on the spread and moneyline despite recent results. The data favors following the money on New York rather than fading.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New York Yankees -1.5 and ML
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Gemini recommends passing on this game (analysis was unclear)