MLB
New York Yankees vs 
Pittsburgh Pirates
League: MLB | Game Time: 7:05 PM ET • 6:05 PM CT • 5:05 PM MT • 4:05 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-07-21 07:05 AM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 New York Yankees -1.5 at +140 / 63% / Strong alignment between public bets (59%) and money (64%) on Yankees spread with Pirates missing multiple starters.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 9 at -106 / 58% / Recent Yankees home games trending low-scoring combined with Pirates injury-depleted lineup limits run production.
💰 Best Bet #3 New York Yankees -148 / 64% / Heaviest money percentage (69%) on Yankees moneyline with positive EV edge from sharp action indicators.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Yankees | 62% |
| Win % for Pittsburgh Pirates | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Runs | 8.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, 5] |
🏈 Matchup: New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates
💸 Public Bets
Yankees 65% / Pirates 35%
💰 Money Distribution
Yankees 69% / Pirates 31%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Yankees moneyline and spread attracting both public and sharp money with no significant adverse movement.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Yankees spread +2.8% EV; total Under +1.9% EV.
Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: Aaron Judge Under 1.5 total bases at -110 / 61% / Multiple IL absences reduce lineup protection and power opportunities in recent form.
– Player Prop #2: Giancarlo Stanton Under 0.5 hits at -105 / 59% / Injury report and low recent home slugging metrics limit production.
– Player Prop #3: Oneil Cruz Under 1.5 total bases at -115 / 57% / Pirates injury cluster and Yankees pitching depth suppress extra-base output.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align on the Yankees across spread and moneyline. Reverse line movement is absent, supporting follow-public logic with positive EV. Injury reports on both sides point to suppressed scoring, favoring the Under on the total.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New York Yankees.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Strongest Bet
– New York Yankees -1.5 (+140) — Strong alignment between public bets (59%) and sharp money (64%) backs