MLB
New York Yankees vs 
Toronto Blue Jays
League: MLB | Game Time: 7:05 PM ET • 6:05 PM CT • 5:05 PM MT • 4:05 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-05-19 07:20 AM EDT
🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 New York Yankees / -1.5 / -1.5 at +140 / 58% / Yankees cover despite recent struggles due to Blue Jays’ depleted pitching staff and consistent home spread success in the data.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 8.5 at -124 / 56% / Low-scoring lean supported by both teams’ recent form showing multiple sub-8 run games and heavy injury impact on offense.
💰 Best Bet #3 New York Yankees / Moneyline / -142 / 61% / Strongest alignment between public money (66%) and sharp indicators favoring Yankees at home.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Yankees | 59% |
| Win % for Toronto Blue Jays | 41% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Runs | 8.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, 4] |
🏈 Matchup: New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays on 2026-05-19
💸 Public Bets
Yankees 61% / Blue Jays 39%
💰 Money Distribution
Yankees 66% / Blue Jays 34%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Line held steady at Yankees -1.5 with heavy money on the favorite despite modest public spread split.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.8% edge on Yankees moneyline and spread based on home data and pitching injuries.
Top 3 Player Props – New York Yankees
– Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases at -110 / 62% / Strong home power trends and Blue Jays allowing extra bases in recent matchups.
– Anthony Volpe Over 0.5 RBI at -130 / 58% / Elevated RBI rate in current season home games against weak pitching.
– Jazz Chisholm Under 0.5 Hits at -115 / 55% / Recent form shows contact struggles against right-handed starters.
Top 3 Player Props – Toronto Blue Jays
– Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases at -105 / 60% / Consistent extra-base production even with supporting cast injuries.
– Bo Bichette Over 0.5 Runs at +105 / 57% / High on-base rate and Yankees bullpen vulnerabilities in late innings.
– George Springer Under 1.5 Total Bases at -120 / 54% / Limited power output in recent road contests.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public money and sharp indicators align on the Yankees side, supporting a follow rather than fade. Heavy injuries to both rotations point to a lower-scoring environment overall.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New York Yankees -1.5 and Moneyline.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Strongest Bet
– New York Yankees -1.5 (+140) — Significant value on the spread driven by Toronto’s depleted pitching staff and the Yankees’ consistent home