NCAAB

North Dakota vs UMKC

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:00 PM ET • 7:00 PM CT • 6:00 PM MT • 5:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-19 09:42 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 North Dakota Fighting Hawks / Spread / -14.5 at -125 / 74%
Heavy public (57%) and money (62%) on UMKC +14.5, but mismatch favors ND cover with superior efficiency implied by line; sim convergence shows strong edge.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 62%
Combined offensive/defensive metrics project avg total ~144; recent low-scoring trends in similar matchups and defensive focus support under despite slight public lean over.

💰 Best Bet #3 North Dakota Fighting Hawks / Moneyline / -10000 / 97%
Overwhelming win probability from market pricing and sim (97.5%), positive EV despite juice in low-volume game.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for North Dakota Fighting Hawks | 97.5% |
| Win % for UMKC Kangaroos | 2.5% |
| Spread Cover % for North Dakota Fighting Hawks | 74% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 40% / Under: 60% |
| Average Total Points | 144.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-27.5, -20.5] |

North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs UMKC Kangaroos

💸 Public Bets
[43% / 57%]

💰 Money Distribution
[38% / 62%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Spread opened -13.5 to -16.5 across books; total varied 140.5-148.5 with no clear RLM]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+5% on ND -14.5; public/money disparity on dog creates value despite consensus favorite pricing, confirmed by sim cover rate > line-implied ~55%]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment and sharp money align heavily on UMKC +spread (57% bets/62% money), signaling potential trap in lopsided matchup, but metrics and sim heavily favor fading toward ND cover. No key injuries reported, minimal travel fatigue; game projects low-scoring with ND defense stifling UMKC offense for under lean. Overall, contrarian fade public optimal as EV aligns with historical heavy-fav cover rates in similar spots.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on UMKC — ND spread holds strongest mathematical probability.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.