NCAAB
North Florida vs 
Austin Peay
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-19 09:14 PM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 North Florida Ospreys / -2.5 / -110 / 55% / Home favorite sees slight money edge (56%) despite even public split (51-49%), aligning with home-court advantage in NCAAB.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 162.5 / -110 / 52% / Slight public lean to Over (51% bets, 55% money) but totals in mid-major matchups often regress below high lines like 162.5 based on pace convergence.
💰 Best Bet #3 North Florida Ospreys / Moneyline / -280 / 65% / Massive public fade opportunity (92% bets/97% money on underdog Austin Peay) indicates sharp resistance to away side.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for North Florida Ospreys | 58% |
| Win % for Austin Peay Governors | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for North Florida Ospreys | 51% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 162.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-17.5, 22.5] |
🏈 Matchup: North Florida Ospreys vs Austin Peay Governors on 2026-02-20
💸 Public Bets
North Florida Ospreys 51% / Austin Peay Governors 49%
💰 Money Distribution
North Florida Ospreys 56% / Austin Peay Governors 44%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable across books (-1.5 to -2.5 range)
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on North Florida spread; implied probs undervalue home win/coverage given public overreaction to underdog ML.
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Austin Peay on moneyline (92% bets, 97% money) but spread action aligns slightly with North Florida (56% money), suggesting sharp money on home side amid even bets. Fade the public ML hype on the underdog as home-court and line consensus support Ospreys; follow money on spread. Game projects moderate scoring (avg 162.5) with slight Under lean absent pace-boosting injuries.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Austin Peay — North Florida holds the edge.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.