NCAAB
Northern Colorado vs 
Northern Arizona
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:00 PM ET • 7:00 PM CT • 6:00 PM MT • 5:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 11:36 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 N Colorado Bears / -12 / -110 / 58% / RLM from -11.5 to -12 despite 52% public bets on dog signals sharp home action; sim cover 55%.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 149 / -110 / 55% / Money 61% on under aligns with sim 52% probability and recent totals averaging 158.5 but matchup favors defense.
💰 Best Bet #3 N Colorado Bears / -850 / 88% / Model win prob 88% exceeds implied 89.5% with heavy public alignment 91%.
Simulation Results (10,000 Monte Carlo Runs)
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for N Colorado Bears | 88% |
| Win % for Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 12% |
| Spread Cover % for N Colorado Bears | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 149 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, 26] |
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.
💸 Public Bets
N Colorado Bears 48% / Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 52%
💰 Money Distribution
N Colorado Bears 43% / Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 57%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Line moved from -11.5 to -12 despite money on dog
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% EV on Bears -12; sim cover exceeds implied odds probability amid RLM.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets slightly favor the dog (52%) with money more heavily on Lumberjacks (57%), but reverse line movement toward the favorite indicates sharp resistance. Follow sharps and model on N Colorado spread. Low-scoring affair expected with sim avg total matching line and under edge from defensive metrics.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Northern Arizona Lumberjacks — model and RLM confirm Bears value.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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