Northern Iowa vs Oakland

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-13 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 11:24 AM EST

Northern Iowa vs Oakland on 2025-12-13

💰 Best Bet #1 [Northern Iowa / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Northern Iowa’s strong home defense and recent form give them an edge, with simulation showing solid cover probability against Oakland’s road struggles.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 144.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at a moderate pace with efficient defenses limiting possessions, aligning with under trends in similar matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Northern Iowa / Moneyline / -190 / 64% / Home advantage and superior efficiency ratings favor Northern Iowa to secure the win outright.]

Game Times

ET: 6:00 PM
CT: 5:00 PM
MT: 4:00 PM
PT: 3:00 PM
AKT: 2:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[65% / 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -3.5 for Northern Iowa and moved to -4.5, reflecting some sharp action on the home team despite moderate public support.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Northern Iowa spread; EV derived from simulation cover rates exceeding implied odds probability, supported by home efficiency metrics.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Northern Iowa | 64% |
| Win % for Oakland | 36% |
| Spread Cover % for Northern Iowa (-4.5) | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 142.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, +12.4] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Northern Iowa but with balanced money distribution, suggesting alignment without strong sharp resistance. Following the home team makes sense mathematically, as EV supports the spread and moneyline based on defensive metrics and home splits. Overall game scoring outlook points to a controlled pace, favoring the under with both squads allowing under 70 points per game recently.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Northern Iowa] — simulation and market data confirm the highest probability on the home side.

Highlights unavailable.