Northern Kentucky vs Wofford

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-26 02:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-26 01:41 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Northern Kentucky / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 60% / Northern Kentucky’s strong home record and superior adjusted efficiency ratings give them an edge to cover against Wofford’s inconsistent road performance.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at a moderate tempo with solid defensive rebounding, and recent games show unders hitting at a high rate due to limited transition opportunities.

💰 Best Bet #3 Northern Kentucky / Moneyline / -160 / 65% / Home advantage and better overall form in the current season make Northern Kentucky the clear favorite in this matchup.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Northern Kentucky | 65.0% |
| Win % for Wofford | 35.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Northern Kentucky | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.0% / Under: 48.0% |
| Average Total Points | 151.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 18.5] |

Northern Kentucky vs Wofford on 2025-11-26

Game Times
ET: 02:00 PM
CT: 01:00 PM
MT: 12:00 PM
PT: 11:00 AM
AKT: 10:00 AM
HST: 08:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
68% Northern Kentucky / 32% Wofford

💰 Money Distribution
72% Northern Kentucky / 28% Wofford

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -3 and has held steady, with no significant movement despite moderate public action on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on the spread, driven by Northern Kentucky’s home efficiency and Wofford’s road struggles in the current season.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Sam Vinson / Over 16.5 Points / -110 / 68% / Vinson averages 18.2 points per game with high usage rate against similar defenses, supported by Northern Kentucky’s efficient offensive rating of 108.5.

Player Prop #2: Dyllan Taylor / Under 14.5 Points / -110 / 62% / Taylor’s scoring dips to 12.1 on the road against top-200 defenses, and Northern Kentucky allows just 65.3 points per game at home.

Player Prop #3: Marquis Buchanan / Over 7.5 Rebounds / -115 / 70% / Buchanan grabs 8.4 rebounds per game, boosted by Wofford’s weak defensive rebounding percentage of 68.2%.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Northern Kentucky, supported by line stability and positive EV on the favorite side, making following the public optimal here. The game outlook leans toward a moderate-scoring affair, with both teams’ defensive efficiencies suggesting the under has value despite the close simulation split. No major injuries impact key players, reinforcing the home team’s edge.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Northern Kentucky — the alignment of metrics, market data, and home advantage provides the strongest probability of success.

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