NCAAB

Notre Dame vs Duke

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 07:35 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Duke Blue Devils / Spread / -18.5 at -102 / 55% / Sharp money disparity shows value despite public split; simulation cover probability aligns closely with breakeven, supported by Duke’s superior efficiency.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 58% / Public and money percentages favor under (54%/58%); low average total in sim (139 pts) from defensive paces and recent trends.
💰 Best Bet #3 Duke Blue Devils / Moneyline / -3500 / 82% / Overwhelming win probability convergence in model (97.5%) vs implied odds.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Duke Blue Devils | 97.5% |
| Win % for Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 2.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Duke Blue Devils | 51.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45.2% / Under: 54.8% |
| Average Total Points | 139.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-7.4, 45.4] |

🏀 Matchup: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Duke Blue Devils

💸 Public Bets
[52% / 48%] (Notre Dame / Duke spread)

💰 Money Distribution
[57% / 43%] (Notre Dame / Duke spread)

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable; opened around -17.5 across books, holding near -18.5 with minor variance between sportsbooks.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Duke spread (model prob 51.4% vs. 52.4% breakeven, enhanced by RLM potential and Duke dominance); +2.8% Under (55% model vs. 52.4% breakeven).

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Cooper Flagg / Over 25.5 Points / 25.5 at -112 / 72% / Duke star averages high usage (30%+), exploits ND’s weaker perimeter D allowing 1.12 PPP to forwards in recent games.
Player Prop #2: Khaman Maluach / Over 10.5 Rebounds / 10.5 at -110 / 68% / Dominant rebounder (12.2 RPG last 10), ND ranks bottom-40 in defensive rebounding rate (68%).
Player Prop #3: Braeden Shrewsberry / Under 14.5 Points / 14.5 at -108 / 70% / ND guard faces elite Duke backcourt D (opp 0.98 PPP), recent form 11.8 PPG vs top-25 teams.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets slightly favor the Notre Dame spread while money leans heavier there, indicating potential sharp action on the underdog amid Duke’s public ML favoritism; however, math and simulation favor Duke cover and under due to efficiency gaps and pace control. Overall game projects low-scoring with Duke controlling tempo (avg 139 total). Fade public ML hype on Duke for spread value.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Notre Dame spread — mathematical edge from money split and model projection.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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