Notre Dame vs Miami (FL)

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-13 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-13 11:04 AM EST

Notre Dame vs Miami (FL) on 2026-01-13

💰 Best Bet #1 [Notre Dame / Spread / +3.5 at -110 / 52% / Notre Dame shows value as home underdog with solid defensive efficiency in recent outings, covering in 60% of similar matchups against ACC foes this season]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 144.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank below average in pace and offensive rebounding, with Miami’s perimeter defense limiting high-scoring games; recent trends favor unders in 55% of combined games]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Miami (FL) / Moneyline / -165 / 58% / Miami’s superior adjusted efficiency and depth provide edge on road, winning 65% of games as moderate favorites this season]

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[45% / 55%]

💰 Money Distribution
[40% / 60%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Miami -3 and held steady at -3.5 despite moderate public action on the favorite, indicating balanced sharp interest.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Notre Dame spread / Public alignment with money suggests no strong fade opportunity; EV derived from simulation probabilities exceeding implied odds, supported by defensive metrics and home-court factors.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Notre Dame | 42.0% |
| Win % for Miami (FL) | 58.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Notre Dame (+3.5) | 52.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 143.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14.8, 11.5] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Miami with aligned money percentages, creating no clear contrarian edge; following the market on the favorite aligns with mathematical probabilities from efficiency ratings and recent form. Notre Dame’s home defense could keep it close, but Miami’s offensive versatility tips the scale. Overall game scoring projects low due to both teams’ deliberate pace and strong perimeter containment, favoring the under.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Miami (FL)] — Miami holds the highest probability of winning based on superior metrics and simulation outcomes.

Highlights unavailable.