Notre Dame vs Missouri

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-02 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 11:30 AM EST

Notre Dame vs Missouri

💰 Best Bet #1 Missouri / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Simulation shows 55.1% cover rate exceeding implied probability, supported by aligned money distribution and stable line amid public favoritism toward home side.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 52% / Average simulated total of 142.8 with 51.7% Under probability aligns with defensive metrics from current season trends on both squads.

💰 Best Bet #3 Missouri / Moneyline / -140 / 52% / 51.8% win probability edges implied odds, bolstered by home advantage and sharp money lean despite moderate public support.

Game Times

ET: 09:00 PM
CT: 08:00 PM
MT: 07:00 PM
PT: 06:00 PM
AKT: 05:00 PM
HST: 03:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Missouri 58% / Notre Dame 42%

💰 Money Distribution
Missouri 62% / Notre Dame 38%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at Missouri -2.5; opened -2 and held firm despite moderate public action on favorite per college basketball trends from SportsBettingDime.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Missouri -2.5; simulation cover rate exceeds implied odds probability, confirmed by season defensive metrics.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Notre Dame | 45.2% |
| Win % for Missouri | 51.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Missouri (-2.5) | 55.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Notre Dame (+2.5) | 44.9% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 142.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.4, 16.7] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment aligns with sharp money distribution on Missouri, creating consensus value on the spread without reverse line movement signals. Follow the public here as metrics and simulation confirm a modest home edge in a projected low-to-mid scoring affair. Defensive efficiencies suggest a controlled pace limiting the total.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Missouri — highest mathematical probability backed by EV and cover simulation.

Highlights unavailable.