Notre Dame vs Virginia

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-27 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-27 07:20 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Virginia / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Simulation cover rate exceeds 55% breakeven, backed by superior adjusted efficiency and home-court metrics in current season data]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 128.5 at -110 / 52% / Average simulated total of 128.2 falls below line, with defensive rebounding and tempo trends favoring lower scoring]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Virginia / Moneyline / -210 / 68% / Dominant 68% win probability from Monte Carlo aligns with form and matchup edges]

Notre Dame vs Virginia on 2026-01-27

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Virginia 65% / Notre Dame 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Virginia 58% / Notre Dame 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -5.5; no significant RLM observed

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Virginia spread; simulation probabilities exceed implied odds across sources

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Virginia | 68.0% |
| Win % for Notre Dame | 32.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Virginia (-5.5) | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 128.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15.2, 27.4] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Virginia, aligning with sharp money indicators and simulation outcomes, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Defensive efficiencies and recent tempo data point to a controlled, lower-scoring affair under the total. No major injuries alter the core matchup dynamics.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Virginia — highest mathematical probability from converged sim, market, and metrics.

Highlights unavailable.