Oakland vs Cleveland State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-09 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-09 11:06 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Oakland / Spread / -9.5 at -110 / 55% / Oakland’s dominant home efficiency and Cleveland State’s poor road defensive rebounding create a clear edge for covering the spread, supported by recent form where Oakland wins by double digits in 70% of home games.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit high-tempo play with Oakland averaging 78 points at home and Cleveland State allowing 75 on the road, leading to overs in 60% of combined recent matchups despite moderate defensive ratings.

💰 Best Bet #3 Oakland / Moneyline / -420 / 82% / Oakland’s superior adjusted offensive efficiency (top-100 KenPom) and Cleveland State’s turnover-prone backcourt yield a strong win probability, aligning with home advantage in Horizon League play.

Oakland vs Cleveland State on 2026-01-09

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Oakland 72% / Cleveland State 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Oakland 65% / Cleveland State 35%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -8.5 and moved to -9.5 with balanced action, showing stability despite public lean toward Oakland.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Oakland spread due to sim probabilities exceeding implied odds, with no significant RLM but positive EV from matchup metrics like pace and efficiency.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Oakland | 82.0% |
| Win % for Cleveland State | 18.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Oakland | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 152.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [10.0, 35.0] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Oakland, aligning with sharp money distribution and mathematical projections from efficiency ratings and home splits, making following the public optimal here without need for a fade. Cleveland State’s recent road struggles amplify Oakland’s edge, though no major injuries alter the outlook. Overall game scoring projects moderately high based on combined offensive ratings around 140 possessions and defensive allowances exceeding 70 points per game.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Oakland — strong convergence of metrics and market data supports the favorite’s high win probability.

Highlights unavailable.