Ohio State vs Minnesota

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-20 06:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-20 11:11 AM EST

Ohio State vs Minnesota on 2026-01-20

💰 Best Bet #1 [Ohio State / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 60% / Ohio State shows strong home efficiency against Big Ten foes, with recent form supporting a cover based on adjusted defensive ratings and Minnesota’s road struggles.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams rank below average in pace and effective FG%, with injuries limiting scoring potential and historical matchups trending low.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Ohio State / Moneyline / -250 / 70% / Superior talent and home-court edge give Ohio State a clear path to victory, aligned with simulation win probability.]

Game Times

ET: 6:30 PM
CT: 5:30 PM
MT: 4:30 PM
PT: 3:30 PM
AKT: 2:30 PM
HST: 12:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
[65% / 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -6 and has held steady at -5.5, with minimal movement despite public lean toward Ohio State.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Ohio State spread; implied probability undervalues home efficiency and recent head-to-head dominance.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Ohio State | 68.5% |
| Win % for Minnesota | 31.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Ohio State | 55.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 141.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.5, 12.3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Bruce Thornton / Over Points / 18.5 at -115 / 65% / Thornton’s usage rate exceeds 28% in home games, facing a Minnesota backcourt allowing 20+ PPG to guards; recent averages hit this in 4 of 5.

Player Prop #2: Dawson Garcia / Under Rebounds / 8.5 at -110 / 60% / Garcia’s rebounding dips on the road against strong interior defenses like Ohio State’s, with averages under 8 in similar matchups; Ohio State’s havoc rate disrupts second-chance opportunities.

Player Prop #3: Evan Mahaffey / Over Assists / 3.5 at -120 / 62% / Mahaffey’s playmaking rises at home with increased minutes, averaging 4+ assists lately; Minnesota’s perimeter defense yields high assist numbers to opposing wings.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Ohio State, aligning with sharp money indicators and no significant reverse line movement, making a follow strategy optimal based on convergent metrics. The game outlook points to moderate scoring, with both offenses hampered by turnover-prone guards and defensive rebounding edges favoring unders. Overall, Ohio State’s home dominance and Minnesota’s travel fatigue support value on the favorite without forcing a fade.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Ohio State] — mathematical probability favors the Buckeyes covering and winning outright.

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