Ohio vs Northern Illinois

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-20 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-20 11:18 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Ohio / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Ohio’s strong home efficiency and Northern Illinois’ road struggles align with simulation cover rate, supported by recent MAC form where Ohio covers 60% as favorites.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 146.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams rank below average in pace and offensive rebounding, with defensive metrics favoring a controlled, lower-scoring affair per adjusted efficiencies.

💰 Best Bet #3 Ohio / Moneyline / -250 / 65% / Dominant win probability from Monte Carlo runs, bolstered by home-court edge and Northern Illinois’ turnover-prone offense against Ohio’s press.

Ohio vs Northern Illinois on 2026-01-20

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[72% Ohio / 28% Northern Illinois]

💰 Money Distribution

[65% Ohio / 35% Northern Illinois]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Ohio -5 and held steady at -5.5 despite moderate public action on the favorite, indicating sharp stability in a mid-major MAC matchup.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+2.8% on Ohio spread / Simulation probabilities exceed implied odds by 3-4% after adjusting for home splits and defensive rebounding rates from current season data.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Ohio | 65.12 |
| Win % for Northern Illinois | 33.45 |
| Spread Cover % for Ohio | 58.23 |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45.67% / Under: 54.33% |
| Average Total Points | 145.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, 21.3] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans heavily toward Ohio, aligning with sharp money distribution and line stability, making a follow on the favorite the optimal mathematical play rather than a fade. Northern Illinois’ recent road form shows vulnerability to efficient MAC defenses like Ohio’s, supporting the cover edge. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with both squads’ adjusted defensive efficiencies and slower tempos favoring the under based on current season trends.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Ohio — highest probability from aligned metrics and simulation outcomes.

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