NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder vs 
Cleveland Cavaliers
League: NBA | Game Time: 1:00 PM ET • 12:00 PM CT • 11:00 AM MT • 10:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 07:02 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Oklahoma City Thunder / +3.5 / -112 / 62% / Simulation shows 61% cover rate even at +1, extends to strong edge at +3.5 amid OKC home splits and CLE road challenges despite public lean
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 226.5 / -110 / 58% / Avg sim total 220 well below line, recent OKC form unders in 60% of games with injuries slowing pace and limiting scoring efficiency
💰 Best Bet #3 Oklahoma City Thunder / Moneyline / +138 / 55% / 52% model win prob vs 42% implied offers +EV on home underdog, injuries offset by depth and home-field metrics
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Oklahoma City Thunder | 52% |
| Win % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Oklahoma City Thunder +1 | 61% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46% / Under: 54% |
| Average Total Points | 220 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18, +22] |
🏈 Matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder on 2026-02-22
💸 Public Bets
[46% / 54%]
💰 Money Distribution
[41% / 59%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
[Stable at CLE -3.5 across sportsbooks]
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.5% on OKC +3.5; model prob 60% vs implied 52.4%; RLM neutral, roster/context overrides public consensus]
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Chet Holmgren / Over 21.5 Points / -110 / 68% / Elevated usage (32%) with Shai/JWilliams out, 24.2 PPG last 10, CLE weak interior D allows 25+ to opposing bigs
Player Prop #2: Isaiah Hartenstein / Over 11.5 Rebounds / -112 / 65% / OKC board 2nd in league, CLE ranks bottom-5 opp reb%, Hartenstein 13.1 RPG recently filling center minutes
Player Prop #3: Luguentz Dort / Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made / -105 / 62% / Shoots 39% from deep vs CLE poor perimeter D, 3.2 3PM avg last 8 with increased minutes due to injuries
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money align heavily on Cleveland (54%/59% spread), indicating consensus, but simulation and OKC home efficiency create fade value despite extensive injuries like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams out. Cleveland misses only Max Strus, yet road form lags vs OKC’s 6-4 recent record and +6.5 avg margin. Overall low-scoring outlook with avg total 220 driven by defensive paces and depleted offenses.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Cleveland Cavaliers
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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