NCAAB

Oklahoma vs Auburn

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 08:24 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Oklahoma Sooners / +1.5 / -108 / 56%
Home underdogs cover at high rate in NCAAB with venue advantage offsetting slight talent gap shown in lines.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 159.5 / -115 / 54%
Public and money lean under slightly; expected pace and defensive efficiencies project total below line.

💰 Best Bet #3 Auburn Tigers / Moneyline / -128 / 55%
Market consensus favorite with aligned sharp/public action supports outright win probability.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Oklahoma Sooners | 46% |
| Win % for Auburn Tigers | 54% |
| Spread Cover % for Oklahoma Sooners | 53% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 159.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-17.5, 15.2] |

🏈 Matchup: Oklahoma Sooners vs Auburn Tigers on 2026-02-25

💸 Public Bets
Oklahoma Sooners 45% / Auburn Tigers 55%

💰 Money Distribution
Oklahoma Sooners 40% / Auburn Tigers 60%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable line holding at -1.5 toward Auburn despite moderate volume.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Oklahoma +1.5; implied prob undervalues home cover likelihood amid public favoritism.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Johni Broome / Over 15.5 Points / -110 / 62% Auburn’s leading scorer averages 17+ PPG with high usage; Oklahoma allows efficient post production.
Player Prop #2: Chad Baker-Mazara / Over 4.5 Rebounds / -112 / 58% Consistent board work in recent outings vs similar defenses allowing 2nd-chance opps.
Player Prop #3: Milos Uzan / Over 12.5 Points / -105 / 55% Oklahoma guard elevated scoring in home games, exploiting Auburn perimeter D weaknesses.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money distributions align heavily on Auburn, indicating consensus without clear sharp resistance or RLM. However, mathematical models highlight value fading the public on the home spread due to NCAAB home-court edges (~3-4 pts). Overall game projects as moderate-scoring affair under the high total based on projected efficiencies and slight under lean.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Oklahoma Sooners — highest EV on +1.5 cover.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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