Old Dominion Monarchs vs Troy Trojans

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-13 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-13 11:28 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Old Dominion Monarchs / Spread / -10.5 at -105 / 52% / Old Dominion’s strong home form and recent defensive efficiency support covering the spread, with simulation showing a slight edge over the line despite Troy’s road resilience.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 52.5 at -115 / 52% / Both teams’ current season defensive metrics and lower-scoring recent trends in conference play favor a controlled game under the total, aligning with the simulation’s average of 53.4 points but skewed toward under probability.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Troy Trojans / Moneyline / +300 / 25% / Troy’s upset potential in simulations (25.2% win probability) offers value against the heavy favorite pricing, backed by their explosive play rate and Old Dominion’s occasional home vulnerabilities.]

Old Dominion Monarchs vs Troy Trojans on 2025-11-13

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
Old Dominion 68% / Troy 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Old Dominion 55% / Troy 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Old Dominion -9.5; moved to -10.5 amid sharp action on the favorite, indicating professional money pushing the line higher despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Troy moneyline; simulation probabilities reveal overpricing of Old Dominion’s win chance (68.5% estimated vs. 78.9% implied), creating value on the underdog while spread and total edges remain marginal.

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Old Dominion Monarchs | 68.5% |
| Win % for Troy Trojans | 25.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Old Dominion Monarchs | 52.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 53.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18.2, 22.1] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors Old Dominion, but divergent money distribution and line movement toward the favorite suggest sharp resistance, creating opportunities to fade the public on the moneyline. Mathematical edges favor contrarian plays where simulations show undervaluation of Troy’s chances, while totals lean under due to both teams’ defensive havoc rates in recent conference games. Overall scoring outlook points to a mid-range affair, with Old Dominion’s home advantage tempered by Troy’s success rate against similar opponents.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Troy Trojans — simulations and EV calculations highlight the underdog’s positive edge against inflated favorite pricing.

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