Ole Miss vs Missouri

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-10 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 01:04 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Ole Miss / Spread / +4.5 at -110 / 55% / Missouri’s recent road struggles and Ole Miss home efficiency suggest the Rebels cover the spread, supported by line movement favoring the underdog.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams rank below average in pace and defensive rebounding, with injuries limiting scoring output, pointing to a lower-scoring affair.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Missouri / Moneyline / -190 / 58% / Tigers’ superior adjusted efficiency and win streak give them the edge despite public heavy action.]

Ole Miss vs Missouri on 2026-01-10

Game Times

ET: 6:00 PM
CT: 5:00 PM
MT: 4:00 PM
PT: 3:00 PM
AKT: 2:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Missouri 65% / Ole Miss 35%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Missouri 70% / Ole Miss 30%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

[Opened at Missouri -3.5, moved to -4.5 amid sharp money on the favorite despite public support.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Ole Miss +4.5, driven by reverse line movement and Missouri’s subpar away splits in current season.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Tamar Bates / Over 15.5 Points / -110 / 65% / Bates averages 17.2 PPG in last 5, exploiting Ole Miss’s weak perimeter defense allowing 38% from three.
Player Prop #2: Jaylen Murray / Over 12.5 Points / -115 / 62% / Murray’s 14.8 PPG usage rises at home, facing Missouri’s turnover-prone guards.
Player Prop #3: Daeshon Ruffin / Under 5.5 Assists / -105 / 60% / Ruffin’s playmaking dips against Missouri’s top-100 press defense, averaging 4.2 in similar matchups.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Ole Miss | 45% |
| Win % for Missouri | 55% |
| Spread Cover % for Ole Miss (+4.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 140.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6.5, +2.8] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Missouri, aligning with sharp money and recent form, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Ole Miss’s home-court advantage and defensive metrics provide value on the spread, but the Tigers’ efficiency edges them for the win. Overall, expect a controlled game under the total due to both teams’ mid-tempo styles and key injuries impacting offensive flow.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Missouri] — mathematical probability favors the Tigers covering and winning based on adjusted ratings and head-to-head trends.

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