Ole Miss vs Tulane

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-12-20 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-20 10:05 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Ole Miss / Spread / -17.5 at -110 / 65% / Ole Miss holds strong defensive metrics and home advantage, covering in 60% of simulations against inferior opponents like Tulane.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 57.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams show recent high-scoring trends with Ole Miss averaging 44.7 points in wins and Tulane pushing totals over in road games, aligning with 58.2 average simulated points.
💰 Best Bet #3 Ole Miss / Moneyline / -880 / 80% / Dominant win probability from superior SP+ ratings and explosive play rate, making the heavy favorite a safe play.

🏈 Matchup: Ole Miss vs Tulane on 2025-12-20

Game Times

ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets

Ole Miss 78% / Tulane 22%

💰 Money Distribution

Ole Miss 72% / Tulane 28%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -16.5 for Ole Miss and moved to -17.5, indicating some sharp action on the favorite despite public support.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4% on Ole Miss spread / Consensus from simulations and recent form shows value in the home favorite, with EV boosted by Tulane’s weaker success rate against top defenses.

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Ole Miss | 82% |
| Win % for Tulane | 18% |
| Spread Cover % for Ole Miss -17.5 | 60% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 58.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [12, 28] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Ole Miss, aligning with sharp money and line stability, making a follow strategy optimal based on the Rebels’ superior yards per play and havoc rate. Tulane’s recent upsets add upset risk, but Ole Miss’s home-field edge and turnover margin tilt the math. Overall scoring outlook points to a moderate-to-high total, driven by Ole Miss’s explosive offense against Tulane’s vulnerable secondary.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Ole Miss — backed by 82% simulated win rate and positive EV on the spread.

Highlights unavailable.