Oregon Ducks vs South Dakota St Jackrabbits

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-12 09:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-12 06:36 PM EST

Oregon Ducks vs South Dakota St Jackrabbits on 2025-11-12

💰 Best Bet #1 [Oregon Ducks / Spread / -16.5 at -110 / 70% / Oregon’s home dominance and superior efficiency ratings give them a strong edge to cover against a South Dakota State team that has struggled offensively early in the season.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 144.5 at -105 / 60% / Both teams have played in low-scoring affairs recently, with Oregon’s defense allowing just 64 points per game and South Dakota State’s offense averaging under 70, pointing to a controlled pace.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Oregon Ducks / Moneyline / -2100 / 95% / As heavy favorites at home, Oregon’s talent disparity and recent wins make an upset highly unlikely against an inferior opponent.]

Game Times

ET: 09:30 PM
CT: 08:30 PM
MT: 07:30 PM
PT: 06:30 PM
AKT: 05:30 PM
HST: 03:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
[82% / 18%]

💰 Money Distribution
[65% / 35%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
The spread opened at -15.5 and has held steady at -16.5 across major books, with minimal movement indicating consensus on Oregon’s favoritism despite public heavy action on the Ducks.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4.2% on Oregon spread; implied probability of 55% to cover exceeds the -110 odds’ break-even of 52.4%, supported by adjusted efficiency metrics and home-court advantage in a mismatch.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|———————————|——————————–|
| Win % for Oregon Ducks | 92.0% |
| Win % for South Dakota St Jackrabbits | 8.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Oregon Ducks | 68.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 142.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [8.2, 32.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nate Bittle / Over Points / 17.5 at -120 / 75% / Bittle’s recent 25-point outing against Rice highlights his scoring efficiency inside, facing a South Dakota State defense that allows 72 points per game, boosting over likelihood.

Player Prop #2: Nate Bittle / Over Rebounds / 9.5 at -130 / 70% / As Oregon’s top rebounder averaging 10 per game early, Bittle exploits mismatches against SDSU’s weaker frontcourt, with offensive rebounding rates favoring the over.

Player Prop #3: Jackson Shelstad / Over Points / 18.5 at -110 / 65% / Shelstad’s 20+ scoring in both early games aligns with high usage (28%) against SDSU’s perimeter defense, which has yielded 15+ to guards in losses.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Oregon, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by stable lines and money distribution, making following the Ducks the optimal play without need for a fade. Both teams’ defensive metrics suggest a lower-scoring contest than the total implies, with Oregon’s pace control and SDSU’s turnover issues limiting possessions. No major injuries reported, preserving key contributors like Bittle for a straightforward home win.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Oregon Ducks] — Overwhelming data convergence points to Oregon’s victory and cover as the highest-probability outcome.

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