NCAABOregon St Beavers vs North Dakota St Bison
League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 09:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 08:21 PM EST
🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 Oregon St Beavers / Spread / -9.5 at -110 / 55% / Beavers show strong home efficiency in simulations, covering in 55.2% of runs against a rebuilding Bison squad with inferior tempo and rebounding metrics.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 144.5 at -107 / 52% / Combined offensive ratings suggest a pace-driven game, with average simulated total of 149.1 points exceeding the line in over half of iterations, factoring recent preseason trends.
💰 Best Bet #3 Oregon St Beavers / Moneyline / -485 / 79% / Dominant win probability from adjusted efficiency edges and home advantage, aligning with 78.5% simulation success rate despite the juice.
🏀 Matchup: Oregon St Beavers vs North Dakota St Bison on 2025-11-03
Game Times
ET: 9:30 PM
CT: 8:30 PM
MT: 7:30 PM
PT: 6:30 PM
AKT: 5:30 PM
HST: 3:30 PM
💸 Public Bets
Oregon St Beavers 72% / North Dakota St Bison 28%
💰 Money Distribution
Oregon St Beavers 68% / North Dakota St Bison 32%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Opened at -8.5 for Beavers (per BetMGM early lines); moved to -9.5/-10 across books like FanDuel and BetOnline despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating some sharp resistance but overall steam toward Oregon State.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.8% on Beavers spread; implied probability from odds (around 52% cover) undervalues the 55.2% simulation cover rate, supported by Oregon State’s superior adjusted offensive efficiency (projected 78 points) versus NDSU’s defensive rebounding weaknesses.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Oregon St Beavers | 78.5% |
| Win % for North Dakota St Bison | 21.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Oregon St Beavers | 55.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.3% / Under: 47.7% |
| Average Total Points | 149.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.4, 25.8] |
Top 3 Player Props
- Player Prop #1: Isaiah Johnson (Oregon St) / Over Points / 14.5 at -115 / 68% / Johnson’s high usage rate (28%) and efficiency in transition matchups project 16.2 points on average, exploiting NDSU’s perimeter defense that allowed 15+ from similar guards in exhibitions.
- Player Prop #2: Taj Manning (North Dakota St) / Under Rebounds / 6.5 at -110 / 62% / Manning’s rebounding dips on the road (4.8 avg last season), facing Oregon State’s strong interior (top-100 defensive rebound %); simulations show under in 61% of scenarios with limited minutes.
- Player Prop #3: Warith Alatishe (Oregon St) / Over Rebounds + Assists / 8.5 at -105 / 65% / Alatishe’s double-double potential shines at home (9.2 combined last year), with NDSU’s slower tempo favoring his board work and outlet passes; data supports over based on 70% hit rate in favorable matchups.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Beavers, aligning with money distribution and line movement toward the home favorite, making a follow-the-public approach optimal as metrics confirm no sharp fade value. Oregon State’s rebuilt roster leverages home-court efficiency (20-13 last season) against a Bison team with turnover-prone guards, while both sides’ defensive rebounding suggests moderate scoring but enough pace for the over to edge out. Overall game outlook points to a controlled, higher-output affair around 75-70, with Beavers pulling away late.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Oregon St Beavers — simulation and market consensus highlight a clear edge on the spread and moneyline in this home opener.
Highlights unavailable for future events.