Oregon State vs Loyola Marymount

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-14 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-14 11:31 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Oregon State / Spread / +4.5 at -110 / 55% / Home court edge at Gill Coliseum boosts Beavers’ cover probability, with recent form showing resilience against West Coast Conference foes despite public leaning opposite.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank top-100 in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom, with fast tempos and weak defenses allowing 75+ points recently, favoring a high-scoring affair.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Loyola Marymount / Moneyline / -200 / 60% / Lions’ superior 10-7 record and road success against similar opponents provide edge, though line offers limited value.]

Oregon State vs Loyola Marymount on 2026-01-14

Game Times

ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Loyola Marymount 65% / Oregon State 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Loyola Marymount 55% / Oregon State 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Loyola Marymount -3.5 but moved to -4.5 amid heavy public action on the Lions, indicating potential sharp resistance on the Beavers’ side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Oregon State +4.5; reverse line movement against 65% public bets suggests value, supported by home splits and efficiency metrics showing Beavers covering in 6 of last 8 at Gill Coliseum.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Oregon State | 45% |
| Win % for Loyola Marymount | 55% |
| Spread Cover % for Oregon State | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 142 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 6] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Dominick Harris (Loyola Marymount) / Over Points / 16.5 at -115 / 70% / Harris averages 18.2 PPG in last 5 road games with high usage (28%) against Oregon State’s middling perimeter defense (37% opponent 3P%), projecting 19+ in favorable matchup.

Player Prop #2: Jordan Pope (Oregon State) / Over Assists / 4.5 at -110 / 65% / Pope dishes 5.1 APG at home, exploiting LMU’s turnover-prone guard play (15% TO rate), with on-court plus-minus indicating 6+ assists likely in paced-up game.

Player Prop #3: Keeshawn Barthelemy (Loyola Marymount) / Over Rebounds / 5.5 at -105 / 62% / Barthelemy grabs 6.4 RPG vs. similar frontcourts, capitalizing on Oregon State’s poor defensive rebounding (68% rate), supported by recent double-digit rebound games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Loyola Marymount, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement point to sharp action on Oregon State, making a fade optimal for the spread with positive EV. Both teams’ defenses rank outside the top 150 in efficiency, suggesting a game likely exceeding 140 points based on offensive outputs (Oregon State 78 PPG home, LMU 76 PPG away). Overall, the matchup tilts toward the Lions winning but not covering, with over as a secondary lean.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Oregon State] — mathematical probability favors the Beavers covering the spread at home against overvalued road favorites.

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