NCAAB

Oregon vs Wisconsin

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 11:00 PM ET • 10:00 PM CT • 9:00 PM MT • 8:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-25 09:53 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Oregon Ducks +5.5 at -106 68%
Simulation projects Oregon covering in 68% of outcomes amid Wisconsin’s recent road struggles and Oregon’s solid home scoring; public split near even but money leans Wisconsin without RLM support.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over 152.5 at -108 60%
Recent games for both average 157+ totals with efficient offenses (Oregon 81 PPG scored, Wisconsin 83 PPG); defensive metrics allow high pace, under public bias creates value.

💰 Best Bet #3 Oregon Ducks Moneyline +198 56%
Model win probability exceeds implied odds significantly (56% vs 33%), backed by home advantage and Wisconsin’s blowout loss to BYU exposing vulnerabilities.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Oregon Ducks | 56% |
| Win % for Wisconsin Badgers | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Oregon Ducks +5.5 | 68% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 60% / Under: 40% |
| Average Total Points | 158.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15, 9] |

🏀 Matchup: Oregon Ducks vs Wisconsin Badgers
💸 Public Bets
[49% / 51%]
💰 Money Distribution
[44% / 56%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable around Wisconsin -5 to -5.5 across books, no significant RLM despite public ML skew.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Oregon spread (model 68% cover vs implied ~52%); positive EV ignores public ML fade without strong disparity.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jackson Shelstad (Oregon) / Over 16.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Averaging high usage in recent wins (83+ pts games), faces Wisconsin allowing efficient guard scoring.
Player Prop #2: John Blackwell (Wisconsin) / Over 14.5 Points / -112 / 70% / Key scorer in 83+ PPG outings, Oregon defense vulnerable to wings per recent allowed totals.
Player Prop #3: Steven Crowl (Wisconsin) / Over 7.5 Rebounds / -108 / 68% / Dominates boards in wins (high rebounding rate), Oregon yields second-chance opps in losses.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets near even on spread but heavily skewed to Wisconsin ML (73%), with money % confirming alignment toward favorite; however, simulation and recent form (Wisconsin’s 70-pt road loss) justify fading without injury offsets. Sharp money follows public here, but EV favors Oregon side. Overall scoring outlook high with both offenses averaging 81+ PPG against middling defenses.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Oregon Ducks +5.5 — highest mathematical probability per 10k sims.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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