Orlando Magic vs Chicago Bulls

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-01 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-01 07:02 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Orlando Magic / Spread / -8.5 at -110 / 62% / Orlando’s strong recent form (8-2 last 10) and home edge overpower injury-hit Bulls, with sim cover at 58% aligning with sharp consensus despite public lean.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 221.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ defensive ratings and key absences (Banchero out, White doubtful) project low pace and scoring, matching sim average of 218.4 points.
💰 Best Bet #3 Orlando Magic / Moneyline / -375 / 72% / Dominant win probability from sim and metrics like Bulls’ 3 straight losses vs Magic’s hot streak confirm heavy favorite value.

Orlando Magic vs Chicago Bulls on 2025-12-01

Game Times
ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Orlando Magic | 72% |
| Win % for Chicago Bulls | 28% |
| Spread Cover % for Orlando Magic (-8.5) | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability (221.5) | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 218.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+2.1, +14.3] |

💸 Public Bets
Orlando 65% / Chicago 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Orlando 72% / Chicago 28%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened -7.5, moved to -8.5 on Magic side despite heavy public action, signaling sharp buy on home favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Magic -8.5; sim probabilities exceed implied odds, bolstered by RLM and Bulls’ road woes/injuries.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Franz Wagner / Over 22.5 Points / -115 / 68% / Wagner available with face mask, averaging 25+ PPG recently sans Banchero; Bulls weak wing defense yields high usage.
Player Prop #2: Jalen Suggs / Over 12.5 Points + Assists / -110 / 65% / Elevated role with Paolo out, 70% hit rate last 10 games; exploits Bulls backcourt injuries like White doubtful.
Player Prop #3: Matas Buzelis / Under 18.5 Points / -112 / 62% / Rookie struggling vs Magic defense (under in 8/10), limited by Bulls’ depth issues and low volume projection.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages converge on Orlando, matching sharp line movement and sim edges without meaningful RLM fade opportunity. Follow the market here as injuries weaken Chicago further while Magic maintain offensive efficiency. Game projects low-scoring with combined defensive rebounding rates and rest advantages favoring under.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Orlando Magic — highest probability aligns across sim, market, and context.

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