Orlando Magic vs 
New York Knicks
League: NBA Cup | Date: 2025-12-13 05:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 05:47 PM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 [New York Knicks / Spread / -4 at -110 / 55% / Knicks’ superior defensive rating (108.2 allowed per 100 possessions) and Magic’s key injuries (Wagner brothers out) create a clear edge, supported by recent form where Knicks cover in 6 of last 8 road favorites.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 215.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank top-10 in defensive efficiency this season (Magic 106.5, Knicks 108.2), with injuries slowing paces and limiting scoring—recent head-to-heads average 208 points.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [New York Knicks / Moneyline / -180 / 58% / Knicks’ 58% win probability from metrics, boosted by Brunson’s 28.4 PPG and home-team fatigue for Magic in neutral-site Cup semis.]
Orlando Magic vs New York Knicks on 2025-12-13
Game Times
ET: 5:30 PM
CT: 4:30 PM
MT: 3:30 PM
PT: 2:30 PM
AKT: 1:30 PM
HST: 11:30 AM
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Orlando Magic | 42% |
| Win % for New York Knicks | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Knicks (-4) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 214.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-16.2, 18.5] |
💸 Public Bets
[35% / 65%]
💰 Money Distribution
[42% / 58%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Knicks -3.5 and moved to -4 amid steady public action on New York, with no significant sharp resistance noted in high-volume Cup betting.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Knicks spread / Reasoning: Implied probability of -110 odds is 52.4%, but simulation and defensive metrics converge at 55% cover rate, creating value despite public lean.]
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Paolo Banchero / Over Points / 24.5 at -115 / 68% / Banchero’s 27.1 PPG season average surges to 29.8 without Franz Wagner (out, ACL), facing Knicks’ perimeter D vulnerable to ISO (allows 25.2 PPG to forwards); 7/10 overs in similar spots.
Player Prop #2: Jalen Brunson / Over Assists / 6.5 at -110 / 72% / Brunson’s 7.2 APG rises with McBride/Shamet out, exploiting Magic’s turnover-forcing D (14.2% rate) but high usage (32%) in pick-and-rolls; hit over in 8/12 games vs. top-10 defenses.
Player Prop #3: Mikal Bridges / Over Rebounds / 4.5 at -105 / 65% / Bridges grabs 5.1 RPG with Towns drawing doubles, Magic weak on boards (44.2% opp rebound rate allowed); 6/9 overs on road vs. injury-depleted fronts like Orlando’s.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Knicks at 65%, aligning with money distribution at 58% and line movement, indicating consensus without sharp divergence—following the public is optimal here as metrics confirm New York’s edge. Injuries tilt the matchup further, with Magic missing Franz and Moritz Wagner, hampering scoring, while Knicks’ depth holds despite guard absences. Overall game outlook leans low-scoring, with elite defenses (both top-8 in rating) and neutral-site fatigue projecting under the total based on pace-adjusted efficiency.
🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with New York Knicks / Strong alignment of public money, simulation win probability, and injury-adjusted metrics point to Knicks as the highest-EV side.]
Highlights unavailable.