Orlando Magic vs San Antonio Spurs

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-03 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-03 06:42 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Orlando Magic / Spread / -8 at -110 / 58% / Spurs heavily depleted without Wembanyama and Castle; Magic cover sim at 58.3% with home defense edge and RLM supporting.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 222.5 at -110 / 53% / Injuries to key scorers on both sides limit pace; sim avg 221.4 points and 52.9% Under probability aligns with defensive matchup.

💰 Best Bet #3 Orlando Magic / Moneyline / -320 / 67% / Dominant 67.2% win projection fueled by Banchero absence offset by depth vs Spurs’ missing stars.

🏀 Orlando Magic vs San Antonio Spurs on 2025-12-03

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Orlando Magic 72% / San Antonio Spurs 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Orlando Magic 58% / San Antonio Spurs 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Magic -7.5, moved to -8 amid sharp action on home side despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Magic spread; sim cover rate and RLM indicate value against depleted Spurs.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Orlando Magic | 67.2% |
| Win % for San Antonio Spurs | 32.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Orlando Magic | 58.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47.1% / Under: 52.9% |
| Average Total Points | 221.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15.2, 28.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Orlando Magic at 72%, but money distribution at 58% shows divergence, with line movement toward the favorite indicating some sharp reinforcement despite Spurs injuries. Mathematical models align with following the home side on spread due to +EV and sim edges, while totals lean low-scoring given depleted rosters and defensive paces. Overall game outlook projects moderate scoring under the line amid key absences like Banchero, Wembanyama, and supporting cast.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Orlando Magic — sim probabilities, injury context, and market steam confirm highest win probability on home spread and moneyline.

Highlights unavailable.