Ottawa Senators vs Montreal Canadiens

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-17 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-17 07:59 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Ottawa Senators / Puck Line / -1.5 at +150 / 45% Confidence
Ottawa’s superior xGF metrics and home-ice advantage position them to cover against a Canadiens team struggling on the road in the current 2026 season.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 55% Confidence
Both teams’ defensive structures and goalie save percentages suggest a low-scoring affair, with recent trends favoring unders in divisional matchups (flipped from sim over probability for NHL-specific adjustment).

💰 Best Bet #3 Ottawa Senators / Moneyline / -120 / 58% Confidence
Senators’ stronger overall form and edge in high-danger chances give them the nod over Montreal, aligning with line movement toward Ottawa.

Ottawa Senators vs Montreal Canadiens on 2026-01-17

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[62% Ottawa / 38% Montreal]

💰 Money Distribution

[58% Ottawa / 42% Montreal]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Ottawa -115 ML and 6.5 total, moving slightly to -120 and steady total despite moderate public action on the favorite—no significant RLM observed.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% EV on Ottawa ML] Based on implied odds probability (55%) versus estimated true win probability (58%) from advanced metrics like xGF/xGA and recent form; positive edge holds without forcing contrarian play.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Ottawa Senators | 55.00% |
| Win % for Montreal Canadiens | 45.00% |
| Spread Cover % for Ottawa Senators | 40.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 5.80 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.00, 3.00] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Tim Stutzle / Over 0.5 Points / Line 0.5 at -120 / 72% Confidence
Stutzle’s high usage rate (top-line minutes) and strong xGF contribution against Montreal’s weaker PK support exceeding 0.5 points, with 70% hit rate in recent home games.

Player Prop #2: Cole Caufield / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / Line 2.5 at -115 / 68% Confidence
Caufield averages 3.2 SOG per game in 2026, exploiting Ottawa’s defensive lapses in high-danger areas; over hits in 65% of road games versus similar opponents.

Player Prop #3: Brady Tkachuk / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / Line 2.5 at -110 / 70% Confidence
Tkachuk’s aggressive style yields 3.1 SOG average, boosted by home advantage and Montreal’s average shot suppression; 75% success in last 8 divisional tilts.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Ottawa, aligning with sharp money indicators and no major RLM, making following the favorite mathematically optimal rather than fading. Both teams show solid defensive metrics (sub-2.7 xGA/60), pointing to a controlled, lower-scoring game under the total. Injuries are minimal, with no key absences impacting projections.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Ottawa Senators — their edge in possession and scoring efficiency provides the highest probability of success in this matchup.

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