Pacific vs Sacramento State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-29 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 10:48 AM EST

Pacific vs Sacramento State on 2025-11-29

💰 Best Bet #1 Sacramento State / +5.5 / -110 / 58% / Pacific 0-11 ATS as home favorite >4.5 pts this season per recent trends, RLM supports dog amid divergent money

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams low adj efficiency and tempo per KenPom data, recent games averaging under total

💰 Best Bet #3 Pacific / Moneyline / -250 / 68% / Superior ratings and home edge align with sim win probability

Game Times
ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Pacific 72% / Sacramento State 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Pacific 42% / Sacramento State 58%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Pacific -6.5, moved to -5.5 despite heavy public on favorite (RLM indicates sharp action on Sac State)

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Sacramento State +5.5 (public fade justified by RLM, money split, Pacific’s poor ATS home fav record; sim cover prob exceeds implied 52.4%)

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Pacific | 68% |
| Win % for Sacramento State | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Pacific (-5.5) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 142.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, +8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Pacific spread but money and line movement favor Sacramento State, creating value in fading the favorite given Pacific’s 0-11 ATS trend as home favorites over 4.5 points. Sharp action aligns with sim outcomes showing close contest. Game projects low-scoring with both offenses struggling against defenses per current season adj efficiencies.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Sacramento State — highest EV from RLM, money disparity, and historical ATS failure.

Highlights unavailable.