NCAAB

Pepperdine vs Seattle

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-25 09:43 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Pepperdine / +5.5 / -110 / 58% / Money concentration (58%) on home dog with reverse line movement from +6 to +5.5 amid heavy public action on Seattle ML, aligning with sim cover probability.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 144.5 / -110 / 55% / Public and money skew under (57%/61%), recent Seattle defensive form allowing low points (avg 70 allowed), Pepperdine allowed trending higher late, sim avg total 145 supports slight edge.
💰 Best Bet #3 Seattle / -280 / 62% / Superior recent form (3 straight wins), sim win probability converges with implied odds despite public overload.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Pepperdine Waves | 45.5% |
| Win % for Seattle Redhawks | 54.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Pepperdine (+5.5) | 58.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 146 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-18.2, 14.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Je’Hon Gore (Pepperdine) / Over 13.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Gore leads team scoring avg 15.2 PPG recent, high usage vs Seattle def vulnerable to guards, recent home overs 3/3.
Player Prop #2: Max Murrell (Pepperdine) / Over 5.5 Rebounds / -112 / 68% / Strong rebounder (6.8 RPG), Seattle weak on boards allowed 38% opp reb rate, home splits favor overs.
Player Prop #3: Cameron Tyson (Seattle) / Over 17.5 Points / -110 / 75% / Top scorer 19.1 PPG last 5, Pepperdine def allows 82 PPG, high-volume shooter efficient vs similar pace.

🏀 Matchup: Pepperdine Waves vs Seattle Redhawks

💸 Public Bets
[Pepperdine 24% / Seattle 76%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Pepperdine 19% / Seattle 81%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Spread shifted from +6 (BetOnline) to +5.5 (consensus/Playbook) despite 76% public bets and 81% money on Seattle ML, signaling sharp action on Pepperdine cover.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Pepperdine +5.5 (+4.2% EV): Sim 58.4% cover vs 52.4% implied breakeven, backed by RLM and spread money disparity; Under 144.5 (+3.1% EV) on defensive matchup and public fade potential.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Seattle ML (76% bets/81% money) aligning with recent form, but divergent spread action (58% money on Pepperdine +5.5) and RLM indicate sharp resistance to the favorite. Fade public on ML optimal, follow money on spread dog with sim support. Game projects moderate scoring (avg 146 total) with defensive edges from Seattle limiting high outputs.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Seattle — Pepperdine +5.5 holds strongest mathematical edge.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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