Philadelphia 76ers vs Golden State Warriors

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-04 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 09:54 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Philadelphia 76ers / Spread / -4 at -110 / 55% / 76ers show strong home edge with Warriors hobbled by injuries like Curry out; sim cover rate 54% aligns with line value despite public lean.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 224.5 at -110 / 53% / Both teams’ paces and ratings project 228 avg points per sim, recent trends favor high-scoring affair with defensive absences.
💰 Best Bet #3 Philadelphia 76ers / Moneyline / -175 / 60% / 58% sim win probability exceeds implied odds (64%), boosted by home court and GSW key absences.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Golden State Warriors on 2025-12-04

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Philadelphia 76ers | 58% |
| Win % for Golden State Warriors | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Philadelphia 76ers -4 | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 228.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8, +12] |

💸 Public Bets
Philadelphia 76ers 62% / Golden State Warriors 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Philadelphia 76ers 55% / Golden State Warriors 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened 76ers -3.5, moved to -4 on sharp action despite public on home side; steady total at 224.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on 76ers spread; sim probabilities and RLM confirm value against public-heavy favorite.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans 76ers but money slightly split signals some sharp resistance to full fade; however, sim and injuries (Curry out, Butler probable for Philly) support following home side with edge. Game projects moderately high-scoring given offensive ratings and pace, favoring over on defensive lapses. Contrarian lean on spread holds as EV positive despite popularity.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Golden State Warriors — 76ers hold superior probability across metrics and context.

Highlights unavailable.