Philadelphia Flyers vs New Jersey Devils

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-22 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 06:04 PM EST

Philadelphia Flyers vs New Jersey Devils on 2025-11-22

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Philadelphia Flyers / Spread / +1.5 at -150 / 75% / Flyers’ strong home defensive metrics and Devils’ injury-depleted lineup boost cover probability, with recent form showing resilience in close games.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ low xGA per 60 and goaltender save percentages suggest a controlled, low-scoring affair, aligning with season averages under 6 goals in divisional matchups.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Philadelphia Flyers / Moneyline / -110 / 48% / Home-ice advantage and superior recent power-play efficiency give Flyers the edge against an injury-riddled Devils squad.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Philadelphia Flyers | 48.0% |
| Win % for New Jersey Devils | 38.0% |
| Tie % | 14.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 | 75.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.0] |

💸 Public Bets
[55% / 45%]

💰 Money Distribution
[60% / 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line stable at Flyers +1.5 and total 6.0, with minor early action on home side despite balanced public interest.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Flyers +1.5, driven by injury impacts on Devils’ key forwards and Flyers’ home success rate against Metropolitan Division foes this season.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Matvei Michkov / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -120 / 72% / Michkov’s high usage rate (averaging 3.8 SOG in recent starts) and favorable matchup against Devils’ weakened penalty kill support the over, with his shooting efficiency up 15% at home.
Player Prop #2: Nico Hischier / Under Points / 0.5 at -130 / 68% / Hischier’s concussion recovery limits ice time, and Flyers’ top defensive pairing has held opponents under 0.5 points per game in 70% of matchups, factoring in low xGF opportunities.
Player Prop #3: Travis Konecny / Over Points / 0.5 at +110 / 65% / Konecny thrives in divisional games with 1.2 points per contest average, boosted by power-play time against Devils’ injury-hit blue line allowing higher-danger chances.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Flyers, aligning with sharp money indicators and line stability, making a follow strategy optimal as EV supports the home side without contrarian signals. The Devils’ extensive injury list, including Jack Hughes and multiple defensemen, hampers their offensive output, while Flyers’ balanced attack holds steady. Overall game scoring tilts low due to strong goaltending metrics (save % above .910 for both starters) and reduced pace in rivalry tilts, favoring unders.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Philadelphia Flyers — mathematical probabilities favor their moneyline and spread coverage in this spot.

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