Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-23 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-23 05:49 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Phoenix Suns / Spread / -3 at -110 / 58% / Suns leverage home advantage and Spurs’ key injuries like Wembanyama out, boosting cover probability despite public lean]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 220.5 at -110 / 52% / Combined pace and offensive ratings suggest moderate scoring push, with Suns’ efficiency offsetting defensive gaps from absences]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Phoenix Suns / Moneyline / -150 / 65% / Injury disparity favors Suns in win probability, supported by recent form and matchup metrics]

Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs on 2025-11-23

Game Times
ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Phoenix Suns 65% / San Antonio Spurs 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Phoenix Suns 70% / San Antonio Spurs 30%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Stable at Suns -3 after opening -2.5, with slight sharp action on home side despite public favoritism]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Suns spread, driven by injury-adjusted ratings and historical home dominance in similar spots]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|———————————|————————|
| Win % for Phoenix Suns | 65% |
| Win % for San Antonio Spurs | 35% |
| Spread Cover % for Phoenix Suns | 58% (-3) |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 221 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5, 11] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Devin Booker / Over Points / 25.5 at -115 / 72% / Booker’s usage spikes with team injuries, averaging 28+ in recent home games against depleted defenses
Player Prop #2: Tyus Jones / Over Assists / 6.5 at -110 / 68% / Elevated role for Spurs amid absences, with 7+ assists in 70% of starts versus Suns’ perimeter defense
Player Prop #3: Bradley Beal / Under Points / 20.5 at -105 / 65% / Reduced shots due to Booker’s load, projecting 18 ppg against Spurs’ adjusted backcourt without Wembanyama

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on the Suns, justified by the Spurs’ multiple absences including Wembanyama and Castle, creating a clear talent gap. Following the public is optimal here as metrics confirm positive EV without contrarian signals. Overall game scoring tilts slightly over the total, given Suns’ offensive rating and Spurs’ pace, though injuries cap explosive potential on both sides.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Phoenix Suns] — mathematical probability favors the home win amid Spurs’ depleted lineup.

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