Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-30 04:25 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 09:56 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Pittsburgh Steelers / +3.5 at -110 / 56% / Bills offensive tackles Dawkins and Brown ruled out weakens protection against Steelers elite pass rush led by Watt/Highsmith; reverse line movement from BUF -4.5 open to +3.5 signals sharp action despite public fade
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 46.5 at -110 / 56% / Simulation average 44.2 points aligns with strong defenses, Bills recent low outputs post-injuries, and Rodgers rusty return limiting scoring
💰 Best Bet #3 Buffalo Bills / Moneyline -154 / 58% / Josh Allen’s superior efficiency edges Rodgers, Bills better overall form despite O-line issues

🏈 Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 4:25 PM
CT: 3:25 PM
MT: 2:25 PM
PT: 1:25 PM
AKT: 12:25 PM
HST: 10:25 AM

💸 Public Bets
Buffalo Bills 72% / Pittsburgh Steelers 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Buffalo Bills 55% / Pittsburgh Steelers 45%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Buffalo Bills -4.5, moved to Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 despite heavy public on Bills—clear RLM indicating sharp money on Steelers

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Steelers +3.5 / Injuries and RLM outweigh public sentiment, sim cover rate exceeds implied odds probability

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Pittsburgh Steelers | 42% |
| Win % for Buffalo Bills | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for Pittsburgh Steelers | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44% / Under: 56% |
| Average Total Points | 44.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8, +6] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: T.J. Watt / Over 0.5 Sacks / 0.5 at -120 / 75% / Bills LT Dawkins/Spencer Brown out leaves weak protection; Watt averages 0.8 sacks/game vs poor O-lines this season
Player Prop #2: Josh Allen / Under 245.5 Passing Yards / 245.5 at -115 / 62% / Steelers top-ranked pass defense (EPA/play), Bills O-line injuries increase pressure/sacks limiting dropbacks
Player Prop #3: Aaron Rodgers / Under 225.5 Passing Yards / 225.5 at -110 / 58% / First start back from injury, rusty vs Bills secondary; season avg 197 yds/game recently

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Bills due to national media picks (14-3 consensus), but divergent money distribution and RLM to Steelers side post-Bills injury news (Dawkins/Brown out) signal sharp resistance. Fade the public optimal on spread as EV confirmed by sim and context; follow Bills ML only if risk-averse. Game projects low-scoring with elite defenses and O-line issues capping both offenses below 46.5 total.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 — Highest EV from RLM, injuries, and sim convergence.

Highlights unavailable.