Portland Pilots vs UC Davis Aggies

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-09 05:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-09 07:36 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Portland Pilots / Spread / -1.5 at -102 / 55% / Portland holds a home-court edge at Chiles Center with strong early-season offensive efficiency (108 pts/100 poss), covering in 2 of 2 games; simulation shows 52% cover rate against UC Davis’s middling defense.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams average under 80 points in wins, with Portland’s defense allowing 74 and UC Davis at 70; low tempo (72 poss) and solid rebounding suggest a controlled, sub-153 total in 48% of sims.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Portland Pilots / Moneyline / -118 / 54% / Home advantage boosts Portland’s win probability to 54% per 10,000 sims, aligning with recent form (2-0, +9 margin avg) over UC Davis’s road challenges.]

Portland Pilots vs UC Davis Aggies on 2025-11-09

Game Times

ET: 5:00 PM
CT: 4:00 PM
MT: 3:00 PM
PT: 2:00 PM
AKT: 1:00 PM
HST: 11:00 AM

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Portland Pilots | 54.0% |
| Win % for UC Davis Aggies | 46.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Portland Pilots | 52.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 153.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.5, 11.2] |

💸 Public Bets
[Portland Pilots 55% / UC Davis Aggies 45%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Portland Pilots 60% / UC Davis Aggies 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at pick’em but shifted to Portland -1.5 amid home betting action, with totals steady at 152.5 despite slight under lean in low-volume early-season wagering.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Portland spread; simulation and efficiency metrics (Portland off eff 108 vs UC Davis def 98) indicate value despite public favoritism, with no RLM signaling sharp divergence.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans Portland with aligned money percentages, supported by sharp home action and no major injury disruptions in the current 2025 season. Following the public aligns with mathematical edges here, as contrarian fades lack EV justification amid stable lines and Portland’s home dominance. Overall game scoring projects low, with defenses clamping early (Portland allows 74 ppg, UC Davis 70), favoring unders in a possession-controlled matchup.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Portland Pilots] — home efficiency and simulation convergence point to the highest win probability.

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