Portland Trail Blazers vs Boston Celtics

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-28 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-28 05:38 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Boston Celtics / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 75% / Boston’s dominant 80% win probability in simulations, combined with Portland’s key injuries like Jerami Grant out, supports covering the spread on the road against a depleted Blazers roster.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 223.5 at -110 / 60% / Both teams’ recent defensive metrics and injuries to offensive contributors point to a lower-scoring affair, with simulations showing 52% under probability and average total of 223 points.

💰 Best Bet #3 Boston Celtics / Moneyline / -300 / 80% / Strong simulation win rate and line movement favoring Boston amid public alignment make this a high-confidence play despite the juice.

Portland Trail Blazers vs Boston Celtics on 2025-12-28

Game Times
ET: 06:00 PM
CT: 05:00 PM
MT: 04:00 PM
PT: 03:00 PM
AKT: 02:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Portland 30% / Boston 70%

💰 Money Distribution
Portland 20% / Boston 80%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -6 and held steady at -6.5 despite heavy public action on Boston, indicating sharp money supporting the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Boston spread; simulations and injury impacts create value against implied odds, with no reverse line movement but consensus on Celtics dominance.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Portland Trail Blazers | 20.0% |
| Win % for Boston Celtics | 80.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Portland Trail Blazers | 42.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 223.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5.0, 25.0] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Boston, aligning with sharp money and simulation outcomes, making a follow on the Celtics optimal rather than fading. Portland’s multiple injuries, including Grant and Henderson out, weaken their offense, while Boston’s depth shines through. Overall game scoring outlook leans under due to defensive efficiencies and depleted lineups on both sides, though Boston’s pace could push totals higher if uncontested.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Boston Celtics — simulations confirm 80% win probability with positive EV on key markets.

Highlights unavailable.