NBA
Portland Trail Blazers vs 
Denver Nuggets
League: NBA | Game Time: 10:00 PM ET • 9:00 PM CT • 8:00 PM MT • 7:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-20 05:35 PM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Denver Nuggets / +1 / -110 / 58% / Sim-adjusted cover exceeds implied probability amid Portland injuries (Lillard out, Sharpe out) suppressing home edge, despite slight public lean home.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 239.5 / -110 / 55% / Simulated average total 235.2 falls below line; money slightly favors under (58%), recent POR form averages low margin/defensive showings.
💰 Best Bet #3 Denver Nuggets / Moneyline / +100 / 57% / 55% win probability vs implied ~49% offers +EV as road dog, aligned with divergent sim from public near-even split.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Portland Trail Blazers | 44% |
| Win % for Denver Nuggets | 55% |
| Spread Cover % for Denver Nuggets -2.5 | 53% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 235.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.2, 14.8] |
🏀 Matchup: Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets on 2026-02-21
💸 Public Bets
[51% / 49%]
💰 Money Distribution
[56% / 44%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Lines stable per available data
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Denver Nuggets +1 (sim-adjusted cover 53%+ vs implied ~52%); +2.8% Under 239.5 (52% prob vs 50% implied); POR injuries suppress scoring.
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money both slightly favor Portland at home, creating alignment without clear RLM, but simulation and POR injuries (Lillard out Achilles management, Sharpe out calf) tilt value toward Denver cover and win. Defensive metrics from recent POR form (avg margin -3, 120.4 PA) and sim total support low-scoring affair under 239.5. Fade the public lean is optimal as math favors Denver underdog value.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Portland Trail Blazers — Denver Nuggets hold superior mathematical probability across sim outcomes.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.