Portland vs Washington State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-28 05:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-28 10:45 AM EST

Portland vs Washington State on 2025-12-28

💰 Best Bet #1 [Portland / Spread / +6.5 at -110 / 55% / Simulation shows 52% cover probability for Portland, supported by recent form where underdogs in similar matchups cover at a 54% clip this season; line movement stable despite public lean to favorite.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams average under this total in 60% of games this season, with defensive efficiencies ranking top-150 nationally and recent trends showing low-possession pace limiting scoring.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Washington State / Moneyline / -280 / 68% / WSU’s 65% simulated win rate aligns with home advantage and superior adjusted efficiency metrics, offering slight EV edge over implied probability.]

Game Times

ET: 05:00 PM
CT: 04:00 PM
MT: 03:00 PM
PT: 02:00 PM
AKT: 01:00 PM
HST: 11:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[35% Portland / 65% Washington State]

💰 Money Distribution
[40% Portland / 60% Washington State]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Washington State -5.5 and moved to -6.5 with balanced action, no significant RLM detected.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Portland +6.5; public fade justified by sim cover rate exceeding implied odds, with no major injuries shifting dynamics.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Portland | 35% |
| Win % for Washington State | 65% |
| Spread Cover % for Portland (+6.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 138.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.1, -1.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Washington State, aligning with money distribution and market consensus, making a follow on the favorite viable but with limited EV on the ML. Fading the public on the spread provides the strongest edge, as sim data and efficiency metrics suggest Portland keeps it close despite being underdogs. Overall game scoring outlook points to a lower-output affair, with both defenses allowing under 70 points per game on average this season.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Portland] — mathematical probability favors the underdog cover based on simulation and matchup data.

Highlights unavailable.