Purdue vs Indiana

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-28 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-28 06:31 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Indiana / Spread / -28.5 at -110 / 62% / Indiana’s dominant 11-0 record and Purdue’s 2-9 struggles, combined with recent form showing Hoosiers averaging 52 points per game in wins, support a strong cover despite the large line; simulation confirms 62% cover rate.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 53.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ defenses have limited opponents to under 20 points in recent games, with Purdue’s offense averaging just 17 points; matchup factors like cold weather potential and Indiana’s controlled pace favor a lower-scoring affair, aligning with 55% under probability.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Indiana / Moneyline / -3000 / 95% / Hoosiers’ undefeated season and superior metrics across efficiency ratings and turnover margin make them overwhelming favorites against a reeling Purdue squad; no value in underdog but highest win probability.]

🏈 Matchup: Purdue vs Indiana on 2025-11-28

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Purdue 10% / Indiana 90%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Purdue 15% / Indiana 85%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Indiana -27 and moved to -28.5 with heavy action on the Hoosiers, indicating sustained support despite public favoritism.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4.2% on Indiana spread / Consensus from line stability and simulation edges against implied odds; public alignment with sharp money reinforces value without contrarian fade.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Purdue | 5% |
| Win % for Indiana | 95% |
| Spread Cover % for Indiana -28.5 | 62% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 52.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [12.1, 45.8] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Indiana, aligning with sharp money and market movement, making a follow-public approach optimal rather than a forced fade. Purdue’s poor season performance and injuries limit upset potential, while Indiana’s balanced offense and defense suggest controlled dominance. Overall scoring outlook points to under, given defensive strengths and historical low totals in rivalry games.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Indiana] — mathematical probability favors the Hoosiers across spread, total, and moneyline based on form and simulation data.

Highlights unavailable.