NCAAB

Purdue vs Indiana

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:00 PM ET • 7:00 PM CT • 6:00 PM MT • 5:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-20 11:24 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Indiana Hoosiers / +11.5 / -110 / 58% / Sharp money 58% on dog despite split public bets, sim shows 52% cover rate, rivalry tightens margin]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 149.5 at -110 / 60% / Money 61% and bets 57% on under, sim avg total 148 with 53% under probability from defensive projections]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Purdue Boilermakers / Moneyline / -750 / 82% / Home dominance in sim (82% win rate) aligns with heavy public ML action]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Purdue Boilermakers | 82% |
| Win % for Indiana Hoosiers | 18% |
| Spread Cover % for Purdue Boilermakers | 47% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Points | 148 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20, 42] |

🏀 Matchup: Purdue Boilermakers vs Indiana Hoosiers
💸 Public Bets
[Purdue 47% / Indiana 53%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Purdue 42% / Indiana 58%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable at -11.5; no significant shifts observed in provided data
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Indiana +11.5 (sharp money disparity > public % supports dog); +2% on Under 149.5 (splits convergence with sim under 53%)

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets split on the spread with a slight lean toward the underdog, while money distribution shows sharper action on Indiana +11.5, indicating potential value in fading the line. Heavy public alignment on Purdue moneyline (91% bets) contrasts with spread divergence, favoring selective contrarian play on the dog cover. Overall game scoring outlook leans low based on under splits, simulation average of 148 points, and lack of high-tempo indicators.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Purdue spread / Follow the sharp money on Indiana +11.5 — highest EV from money-public disparity and sim convergence.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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