Purdue vs Iowa State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-06 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-06 10:25 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Purdue / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 55% / Purdue’s superior home-court efficiency (top-20 in adjusted defensive rating) and Iowa State’s first true road test against elite competition provide a clear edge on the spread cover.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 52% / Both offenses rank in the top 15 for points per possession this season, with Purdue’s pace and Iowa State’s transition scoring pushing the total higher despite solid defenses.
💰 Best Bet #3 Purdue / Moneyline / -250 / 68% / Simulation heavily favors Purdue at home, where they are 7-0 this season, against an Iowa State team untested on the road.

Purdue vs Iowa State on 2025-12-06

Game Times
ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Purdue 65% / Iowa State 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Purdue 70% / Iowa State 30%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Purdue -6 and settled at -5.5 with minimal movement, indicating steady sharp support for the favorite despite moderate public action.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Purdue spread / Reasoning: Implied probability of -5.5 cover at 53% undervalues the 55% simulation edge and Purdue’s home metrics, creating positive EV without contrarian signals.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Purdue | 68% |
| Win % for Iowa State | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Purdue | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 145.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.5, 21.3] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Braden Smith / Over Assists / 4.5 at -115 / 72% / Smith’s 5.2 APG average this season rises at home, where Purdue’s motion offense against Iowa State’s pressure defense boosts playmaking opportunities.
Player Prop #2: Tamin Lipsey / Over Points / 15.5 at -110 / 68% / Lipsey averages 16.8 PPG on the road, exploiting Purdue’s perimeter defense vulnerabilities shown in recent high-scoring games.
Player Prop #3: Trey Kaufman-Renn / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -105 / 70% / Kaufman-Renn’s rebounding dips to 6.2 per game against physical frontcourts like Iowa State’s, with limited minutes projected in a controlled pace matchup.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Purdue, aligning with sharp money on the favorite, making a follow strategy optimal as metrics confirm the home team’s edge without significant contrarian signals. Iowa State’s undefeated record is inflated by a weak schedule, while Purdue’s home dominance supports the projection. Overall, the game tilts toward moderate scoring, with both teams’ efficient offenses likely pushing past the total line based on current season averages of 78.5 and 82.2 points per game.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Purdue — simulation and market data converge on a strong home win probability.

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