Quinnipiac vs Rider

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-07 02:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-07 09:26 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Quinnipiac / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 60% / Quinnipiac’s strong home efficiency and recent form give them an edge to cover, supported by simulation showing 55% cover rate adjusted for home advantage.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 149.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ defensive metrics and lower tempo suggest a controlled pace, with simulated average total of 148.7 points favoring the under.

💰 Best Bet #3 Quinnipiac / Moneyline / -190 / 65% / Home team dominance in adjusted efficiency ratings points to a solid win probability, aligning with market consensus.

🏀 Matchup: Quinnipiac vs Rider on 2025-12-07

Game Times

ET: 2:00 PM
CT: 1:00 PM
MT: 12:00 PM
PT: 11:00 AM
AKT: 10:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

68% Quinnipiac / 32% Rider

💰 Money Distribution

58% Quinnipiac / 42% Rider

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Quinnipiac -3.5 and moved to -4.5 amid steady public action on the favorite, indicating some sharp support for the home team.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% EV on Quinnipiac spread, driven by home-field advantage, superior adjusted offensive efficiency (105 vs. 100), and simulation outcomes showing consistent edge despite public favoritism.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Quinnipiac | 65.2% |
| Win % for Rider | 34.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Quinnipiac | 55.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.1% / Under: 47.9% |
| Average Total Points | 148.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.3, 20.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Quinnipiac, aligning with money distribution and line movement, suggesting no strong contrarian opportunity—following the favorite is optimal given the mathematical edge from efficiency metrics and home advantage. Both teams exhibit solid defensive rebounding and moderate tempos, pointing to a lower-scoring affair below the total line. No major injuries reported disrupt key rotations, supporting the simulation’s projected outcomes.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Quinnipiac — the convergence of public action, sharp money indicators, and simulation probabilities confirms the highest win likelihood on the home team.

Highlights unavailable.