Rhode Island vs La Salle

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-07 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 11:28 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Rhode Island / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 60% / Rhode Island’s strong home form and defensive efficiency give them an edge to cover, supported by 68% simulated win probability and recent trends against similar opponents.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams exhibit low-possession styles with solid defensive rebounding, leading to a projected average total of 141.8 points and a slight under lean in simulations.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Rhode Island / Moneyline / -200 / 65% / Home advantage and superior adjusted efficiency ratings favor Rhode Island, aligning with 68% win probability from contextual metrics.]

Rhode Island vs La Salle on 2026-01-07

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Rhode Island 65% / La Salle 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Rhode Island 55% / La Salle 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Line opened at -5 for Rhode Island and steadied at -4.5, indicating balanced action despite public lean toward the favorite.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Rhode Island spread, driven by simulation outcomes and home-field adjustments outweighing public sentiment.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Rhode Island | 68% |
| Win % for La Salle | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Rhode Island | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 141.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 20] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Luis Cortinas / Over Points / 18.5 / -115 / 70% / Cortinas averages 20.2 PPG in home games this season, with La Salle’s perimeter defense allowing 22% more points to guards; matchup favors over based on usage rate and efficiency.

Player Prop #2: David Dixon / Under Rebounds / 7.5 / -110 / 65% / Dixon’s rebounding dips to 6.1 per game against teams with strong interior presence like Rhode Island, supported by opponent’s 45% defensive rebound rate.

Player Prop #3: Jaron Pierre Jr. / Over Assists / 4.5 / -105 / 68% / Pierre Jr. has hit over in 7 of last 10 road games, exploiting Rhode Island’s turnover-forcing defense that leads to transition opportunities averaging 5.2 APG.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Rhode Island, making following the favorite the optimal play given the home edge and simulation support. La Salle’s recent road struggles further validate the spread value without contrarian need. Overall scoring outlook points to a controlled pace, favoring the under due to both teams’ top-150 defensive efficiencies and low turnover margins.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Rhode Island] — mathematical probability supports the home team’s edge in win and cover scenarios.

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