Rice vs Arkansas State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-13 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 11:12 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Rice / Spread / +2.5 at -110 / 55% / Simulation shows Rice covering in 55% of scenarios, bolstered by home-court edge and Arkansas State’s turnover issues in recent road games, creating value against a short favorite line.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 139.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit moderate defensive efficiencies in the current season, with Rice allowing 68.2 PPG at home and Arkansas State struggling on the road (under in 6 of last 8), aligning with the 52% under probability from simulations.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Arkansas State / Moneyline / -150 / 51% / Slight edge to the Red Wolves based on overall form and simulation win probability, though the line offers limited value; public leaning heavy but metrics support following in this even matchup.]

🏀 Matchup: Rice vs Arkansas State on 2025-12-13

Game Times
ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Rice 40% / Arkansas State 60%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Rice 45% / Arkansas State 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Arkansas State -2 and held steady at -2.5, with minimal movement despite 60% public on the favorite, indicating balanced sharp action.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Rice spread / Simulations and turnover data suggest positive EV on home underdog cover, as Arkansas State’s road ATS record sits at 4-6 in the 2025 season.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Rice | 48% |
| Win % for Arkansas State | 51% |
| Spread Cover % for Rice | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 140.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 10] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Arkansas State with 60% of bets, aligning closely with money distribution at 55%, suggesting no strong sharp resistance or reverse line movement to fade. Following the favorite on the moneyline holds a slight mathematical edge, but the spread offers better value on Rice given home advantage and simulation cover rates. Overall game scoring projects moderately low, with under favored due to both teams’ defensive rebounding and turnover-forcing tendencies in the current 2025 season.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Arkansas State / No clear edge on total or spread fade] — Arkansas State moneyline provides the best probability based on form and simulations.

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