Rice vs Texas State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-03 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-03 11:15 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Rice / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 56% / Home edge aligns with ESPN model favoring Rice by low single digits, supported by recent line stability and Texas State’s road struggles in current season data.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams rank mid-pack in adjusted efficiency with low tempo (KenPom tempo ~68 for Rice, 70 for Texas State), recent games averaging under total by 4.2 points combined.
💰 Best Bet #3 Rice / Moneyline / -155 / 59% / Consensus from market data shows Rice holding firm as home favorite despite some contrarian chatter, positive EV from implied prob vs. sim win rate.

🏀 Rice vs Texas State on 2025-12-03

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Rice | 58% |
| Win % for Texas State | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Rice (-1.5) | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 140.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9, 11] |

Game Times
ET: 09:00 PM
CT: 08:00 PM
MT: 07:00 PM
PT: 06:00 PM
AKT: 05:00 PM
HST: 03:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Rice 62% / Texas State 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Rice 58% / Texas State 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Rice -1.5, steady at -1.5 to -2 amid balanced action; no significant RLM despite mild public lean to home side (per recent X sentiment and general NCAAB trackers).

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Rice spread (implied 52.4% vs. model 56%); value from home-court metrics (Rice 6-2 home early season) outweighing Texas State upset talk.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans Rice with money distribution closely aligned, indicating no sharp divergence or clear fade opportunity—follow the home favorite where sim and market converge. Both squads show moderate offensive outputs (Rice 72 PPG allowed last 5, Texas State 68 PPG scored) pointing to a controlled, under-leaning total. No major injuries reported in latest checks, preserving key contributors.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Rice — strongest probability from aligned indicators and home advantage in low-total affair.

Highlights unavailable.