NCAAB

Richmond Spiders vs St. Bonaventure

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 6:00 PM ET • 5:00 PM CT • 4:00 PM MT • 3:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 11:01 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Richmond Spiders / -1.5 / -110 / 55% / Home edge with public (55%) and money (60%) alignment, recent form shows defensive potential despite losses
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 149.5 -110 / 53% / Recent games averaging under 145 total points for both, low offensive outputs (Richmond 65 PPG, St. Bonaventure 56 in last)
💰 Best Bet #3 Richmond Spiders / Moneyline / -120 / 55% / Slight favorite at home with aligned sharp/public action

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Richmond Spiders | 55% |
| Win % for St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Richmond Spiders | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Points | 148.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14.2, 12.8] |

🏈 Matchup: Richmond Spiders vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies on 2026-02-21

💸 Public Bets
[55% / 45%]

💰 Money Distribution
[60% / 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable across books from -1.5 open

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Richmond -1.5; implied prob 52.4% vs model 55% win prob from home advantage and form

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Richmond, supporting follow over fade with strong convergence on the short favorite. Recent form indicates low-scoring affair (Richmond totals avg ~142, St. Bonaventure 131), favoring under based on offensive struggles and defensive matchups. No key injuries noted, preserving baseline projections.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Richmond — best mathematical probability from aligned indicators and home-court metrics.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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