Richmond Spiders vs William & Mary Tribe

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-11 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 05:54 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Richmond Spiders / Spread / -9.5 at -108 / 58% / Richmond’s strong home start to the season with an 87-72 win over East Carolina supports covering the spread against a rebuilding William & Mary, backed by line movement toward the favorite.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 164.5 at -115 / 55% / Both teams show defensive tendencies early in 2025, with Richmond allowing 72 points recently and William & Mary struggling offensively, projecting a controlled pace below the line.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Richmond Spiders / Moneyline / -455 / 82% / Home advantage and superior efficiency ratings favor Richmond heavily, aligning with market consensus and no major injuries reported.]

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Richmond Spiders vs William & Mary Tribe on 2025-11-11

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Richmond Spiders 75% / William & Mary Tribe 25%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Richmond Spiders 65% / William & Mary Tribe 35%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -8.5 for Richmond and moved to -9.5 across books like DraftKings and BetMGM, indicating sharp action on the home favorite despite public support.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Richmond spread / Implied probabilities from -9.5 odds suggest 52% cover rate, but adjusted efficiency and home form push true probability to 58%, creating value; total under offers +2.1% EV based on defensive metrics.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Richmond Spiders | 80% |
| Win % for William & Mary Tribe | 20% |
| Spread Cover % for Richmond Spiders | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 162 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.2, 23.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Richmond, aligning with money distribution and line movement, making following the favorite the optimal approach rather than fading. No significant injuries alter the matchup, with Richmond’s recent offensive output (87 points) tempered by solid defense. Overall game scoring outlook points to a lower total, as both squads prioritize efficiency in early-season play without high-tempo offenses.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Richmond Spiders] — mathematical probability strongly supports the home team based on form, market data, and simulation outcomes.

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