Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-30 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 05:44 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Memphis Grizzlies / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58% Confidence
Kings severely hampered by Sabonis absence (out with knee), dropping to 5-15 record; Grizzlies 4-1 ATS without Morant, reverse line movement favors Memphis despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 228.5 at -110 / 55% Confidence
Both teams rank bottom-10 in offensive rating this season; Kings allow few transition points but struggle scoring without Sabonis, Grizzlies defense limits PnR; sim avg 218.4 points.

💰 Best Bet #3 Memphis Grizzlies / Moneyline / -155 / 56% Confidence
Grizzlies hold edge in win probability (51.8% sim), thriving 7-0 ATS recently without key injuries conflicting, public overreaction to Kings home court.

Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Sacramento Kings | 48.2% |
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 51.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Sacramento Kings (-1.5) | 46.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 218.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.3, 11.8] |

💸 Public Bets
Kings 62% / Grizzlies 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Kings 38% / Grizzlies 62%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Kings -1, shifted to Grizzlies -3.5 after Sabonis ruled out and Kings struggles confirmed

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Grizzlies spread; reverse line movement against public with injuries confirming value

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure from outdated provided data and lack of confirmed active lineups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Kings at home (62%), but money flows to Grizzlies (62%) amid reverse line movement, signaling sharp action on Memphis amid Kings’ Sabonis injury and poor 5-15 form. Fade the public aligns with math and sim edges, as Grizzlies cover despite own injuries (Morant out). Game projects low-scoring with depleted offenses and strong defensive matchups, favoring under.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Grizzlies — highest probability with RLM, injury-adjusted metrics, and sim convergence.

Highlights unavailable.